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NFL 2007 Preseason Profit Report
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NFL 2007 Preseason Profit Report
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Part 2 of the 2007 NFL Preseason by Tony Stoffo
by Tony Stoffo
Let me start off by saying that I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity
to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season. Many handicappers
have the opinion that the preseason games should be left alone and not bet on.
I feel just the opposite. If you do your homework the preseason games offer
the betting public a tremendous chance to make a ton of money.
I continue with the remaining NFL teams:
Miami
Cam Cameron takes over as the Dolphins new head coach. Over the last 5 years Cameron
has been the offensive coordinator of the potent Chargers offense. However with
all the uncertainties the Dolphins have on both sides of the ball coming into
this year their definitely a team to stay away from this preseason. The one thing
I did find that sticks out is that Miami is a perfect 0-6 against the spread in
the first preseason game the last 6 years.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Trent Green, Cleo Lemon, John Beck
Minnesota
Brad Childress in his first year as the Vikings head coach played it very conservative
in the preseason as Minnesota saw 3 of their 4 games go under the total. With
a very poor quarterback rotation in place for this year look for this trend of
low scoring preseason games to continue again this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Tarvaris Jackson, Brooks Bollinger,
Drew Henson, Tyler Thigpen
New England
Coming into last years preseason the 'under' was an impressive 13-3 in the Patriots
last 16 preseason games spanning the previous four years. However last year Bill
Belichick opened things up offensively with the Patriots scoring 23, 30, 41, and
23 points in their 4 preseason games. Knowing that the odds makers will continue
to post low totals on all of New England's preseason games, I would look to take
advantage of this and play the over off of last years results.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Tom Brady, Matt Cassel, Matt Gutierrez
New Orleans
Off of last years preseason results it is obvious that Sean Payton does not really
care about winning preseason games as the Saints lost 3 of their 4 games. What
really verifies this is the game the Saints played against the Cowboys in week
# 2 of the preseason where they lost 30-7, and remember the Saints came back in
the regular season and blew away the Cowboys in Dallas. With the Saints playing
the extra game this preseason I would make a strong play against them in their
first preseason game against the Steelers.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Drew Bees, Jamie Martin, Jason Fife,
Tyler Palko
New York Giants
Under head coach Tom Coughlin the Giants have shown some strong trends over the
past 2 years. First the Giants have won and covered 7 straight preseason games
which includes 4 outright wins as a dog. Plus the under has been the right side
in 6 of the Giants last 8 preseason games. With Coughlin's job in jeopardy as
this season begins I would look for another big preseason from the Giant's this
year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Eli Manning, Jared Lorenzen. Tim Hasselbeck,
Anthony Wright
New York Jets
In his first year as head coach of the Jets Eric Mangini showed no willingness
to win preseason games as the Jets lost 3 of their 4 games. Their only win came
against a Joe Gibbs Washington team that has lost 7 of their last 8 preseason
games. Even though we have only one year to look at, I would say this short term
trend will continue this preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Chad Pennington, Kellen Clemens, Marques
Tuiasosopo
Oakland
Lane Kiffin takes over as the new Oakland head coach. Kiffin has run the USC Trojans
offense over the last 4 years. Well it doesn't matter who has been the Raiders
head coach over the past two years as a very strong trend has developed. The Under
has been a big money maker going 8-1. With Kiffin's inexperience as a head coach
will only add to this trend as he will be taking things easy this preseason, and
remember they will also be simplifying things offensively for JaMarcus Russell.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Josh McCown, Andrew Walter, JaMarcus
Russell, Josh Booty
Philadelphia
Andy Reid and the Eagles show no trends that we can take advantage of going 11-10
in the preseason over the last five years. However Reid doesn't care about playing
defense in the Eagles last preseason game of the year as the over has been the
right side in 4 of the last 5 years.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Donovan McNabb ???, AJ Feeley, Kelly
Holcomb, Kelvin Kolb
Pittsburgh
Mike Tomlin takes over as the new head coach of the Steelers. Tomlin was the Minnesota
Vikings' defensive coordinator in 2006 after spending the previous five seasons
as defensive backs coach for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In his first preseason
as defensive coordinator last year with the Vikings defense ruled in the preseason
with Minnesota giving up only 16, 10, 7, and 10 points. May be something we can
take advantage of in his first preseason as head coach of the Steelers.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Ben Roethlisberger, Charlie Batch,
Brian St. Pierre, Bryan Randall
St Louis
Scott Lineham will be in his second year as head coach of the Rams, and a strong
trend easily sticks out that we can make some money with this preseason. Two years
ago as offensive coordinator with the Dolphins Lineham saw Miami go 0-3-2 against
the spread, and last year in his first year as a head coach Lineham led the Rams
to a 0-4 mark against the spread. So in the last two preseasons, Lineham's teams
have gone 0-7-2 against the spread making this one of the top trends to watch
for this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Marc Bulger, Gus Frerotte, Ryan Fitzpatrick
San Diego
Norv Turner takes over the reigns of the Chargers for this season. In Turner's
last head coaching job with the Raiders in 04 and 05 some trends can be taken
away from it that can give us an edge for the Chargers preseason games this year.
First of all in both of his dress rehearsal games the Raiders went 0-2 against
the spread. However Turner put a little more empathic in the last preseason game
of the year going 2-0 against the spread.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Phillip Rivers, Billy Volek, Charlie
Whitehurst.
San Francisco
In Mike Nolan's first two year's as head coach, the 49ers have gone 6-2 against
the spread in the preseason. Here is another team that has a strong quarterback
rotation setup for this preseason. So I look for the 49ers to once again have
another winning preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Alex Smith, Trent Dilfer, Shaun Hill
Seattle
The Seahawks' head coach, Mike Holmgren doesn't put much emphasize in preseason
games, going 8-12 ATS the last five years. However a strong trend has developed
that has seen 7 of the last 10 Seattle games go over the total. Something to definitely
keep your eye on for this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Hasselbeck, David Greene, Seneca
Wallace.
Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers have one of the top preseason trends that we look forward to every
year. Tampa Bay has been a perfect 5-0 in their opening preseason game the last
five years. I look for this trend to easily continue this year with the great
quarterback rotation that the Buccaneers have this preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Chris Simms, Jeff Garcia, Bruce Gradkowski,
Luke McCown
Tennessee
Two years ago, Titans head coach Steve Fisher had won 75 percent of his preseason
games in the previous five years. However, things started to turn around in 05
with the Titans going 1-3 ATS. Then last year the Titans came with another 1-3
ATS record for a combined 2-6 record against the spread over the past two years.
With Vince Young seeing limited action this preseason, and the rest of the Tennessee
quarterback rotation unsettled. I look for the Titans to again be a play against
team this preseason.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Vince Young, Kerry Collins, Kent Smith
Washington
In Joe Gibbs' last two years as head coach of the Redskins it is become apparent
that the Redskins preseason games don't mean anything to Gibb's as Washington
has gone 1-7 both straight up and against the spread. Can't see anything changing
this strong trend coming into this year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Mark Brunell, Jason Campbell, Todd
Collins, Jordan Palmer.
Tony Stoffo
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