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Juventus is going to visit Fiorentina for the Italian Serie A this weekend,
Sunday the 4th of December in a match more than attractive, a typical derby
in the Italian league, and considering the current position in the table, both
teams are fighting for the title, so no doubt that that this is the most exciting
game in the weekend of Serie A.
Before we get inside Sunday’s match, let’s check out the history
of the past 10 games between both teams. In the last 10 games Juventus won 5
times but only once as a visitor, leaving Fiorentina unbeaten for 4 years. On
the other hand, this year’s home team won only once, 7 years ago by the
minimum difference. The remaining 4 games ended with a tie.
If we take a look a t the derby table we find Juventus on top with 36 points,
followed by Milan with 31 points and Fiorentina with 29. If we go deep inside
the figures we’ll see the extraordinary campaign that Fiorentina is having
with 9 winnings, 2 draws and 2 losses, 28 goals in favor 14 against and a remarkable
performance of their top scorer in the league, Toni with 16 goals in 13 games.
But then again, Juventus won 12 games and lost only 1 at Milan (which Fiorentina
beaten at home). Juventus’s goal difference is more impressive due to
their strong defense with 29 goals in favor and only 7 goals against. Considering
that almost 60 percent of Fiorentina’s goals were scored by its astonishing
forward Toni, the most effective defense will have to confront the top scorer
of the calcio.
Although Toni is on fire, we must take into account significant players such
as Fiore and Jorgensen, who are very skilful and valuable not only in assisting
Toni, but also scoring for Fiorentina by themselves. On the back Fiorentina
has a mixture of experience with Pancaro and youth with Dainelli.
However, “the old lady” (that’s how they call Juventus) has
an excellent team starting with the expertise of a defense team composed of
Cannavaro, Thuram, Zambrotta and Chiellini (only beaten 7 times!), skillfulness
in the midfield with Vieira (coming back from a suspension) and the power to
attack of Nedved including the accuracy of Trezeguet and the ability of Del
Piero. Another we must note the return of the goalkeeper Buffon from an injury.
To summarize, the odds are slightly in favor of Juventus in most cases:
starting from 2.22 to 2.63 Juve to win and 2.37 to 3.45 Fiorentina to win, leaving
draw from 2.95 to 3.20; which is in my opinion the most likely outcome.
Interestingly enough, the key factor for success exists here for both teams:
Fiorentina’s main advantage is playing at home (favorable statistics)
and it is going through an extraordinary campaign. Juventus, well known for
its capability to win tough games, is stronger than ever when it comes to Serie
A. This is going to be one exciting match - strongly recommended, impossible
to miss!
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